kmakarski





Opublikowane | Published

  • On Welfare Effects of Increasing Retirement Age ()

    We develop an OLG model with realistic assumptions about longevity to analyze the welfare effects of raising the retirement age. We look at a scenario where an economy has a pay-as-you-go defined benefit scheme and compare it to a scenario with defined contribution schemes (funded or notional). We show that, initially, in both types of pension system schemes the majority of welfare effects comes from adjustments in taxes and/or prices. After the transition period, welfare effects are predominantly generated by the preference for smoothing inherent in many widely used models. We also show that although incentives differ between defined benefit and defined contribution systems, the welfare effects are of comparable magnitude under both schemes. We provide an explanation for this counter-intuitive result.

    An earlier version of this text was circulated under a title "Does social security reform reduce gains from increasing the retirement age?". This earlier version was coauthored by Karolina Goraus.

    Joanna
    Tyrowicz
    Krzysztof
    Makarski
  • Analyzing the effciency of the pension reform: the role for the welfare effects of fiscal closures ()

    Pension system reforms involve fiscal consequences. In practice, a variety of fiscal closures may be implemented, while not all of them involve the same extent of distortions. This paper develops an overlapping generations model to analyze the case of a shift from pay-as-you-go defined benefit system to a partly funded defined contribution system. We calibrate the system to mimic the economy of Poland, which actually implemented such reform in 1999. We analyze the efficiency of the reform with two main closure types: public debt and taxes. Regardless of the fiscal closure scenario this particular reform seems to be efficient in terms of welfare and enhances economic performance. Comparing the welfare of various closures we find that while labor taxation yields relatively higher welfare gain, public debt closure involves least need for the redistribution if capital pillar is to be implemented.

    Jan
    Hagemejer
    Krzysztof
    Makarski
    Joanna
    Tyrowicz
  • Reforming retirement age in DB and DC pension systems in an aging OLG economy with heterogenous agents ()

    We analyze the effects of increasing the retirement age in two economies with overlapping generations and within cohort ex ante heterogeneity. The first economy has a defined benefit system and the second economy is in transition from a defined benefit to a defined contribution. We find that if increase in the retirement age is phased in a way that allows agents to adjust, welfare is not reduced and welfare effects have a similar magnitude and between cohort distribution in both types of the pension systems.

    Joanna
    Tyrowicz
    Krzysztof
    Makarski
    Marcin
    Bielecki
  • Unprivatizing the Pension System: The Case of Poland ()

    In many countries, the fiscal tension associated with the global financial crisis brings about the discussion about unprivatizing the social security system. This article employs an Overlapping Generations model to assess ex ante the effects of such changes to the pension reform in Poland from 1999 as implemented in 2011 and in 2013. We simulate the behaviour of the economy without the implemented/proposed changes and compare it to a status quo defined by the reform from 1999. We find that the changes implemented in 2011 and in 2013 are detrimental to welfare. The effects on capital and output are small and depend on the selected fiscal closure. Implied effective replacement rates are lower. These findings are robust to time inconsistency. The shortsightedness of the governments imposes welfare costs.

    Jan
    Hagemejer
    Krzysztof
    Makarski
    Joanna
    Tyrowicz
  • Small assumptions (can) have a large bearing: evaluating pension system reforms with OLG models ()

    The objective of this paper is to inquire the consequences of some simplifying assumptions typically made in the overlapping generations (OLG) models of pension systems and pension system reforms. This literature is largely driven by policy motivations. Consequently, the majority of the papers is extremely detailed in the dimension under scrutiny. On the other hand, complexity of general equilibrium OLG modeling necessitates some simplifications in the model. We run a series of experiments in which the same reform in the same economy is modeled with six different sets of assumptions concerning the shape of the utility function, time inconsistency, bequests? redistribution, labor supply decisions and internalizing the linkage between social security contributions and benefits in these decisions as well as public spending. We find that these assumptions significantly affect both the size and the sign of the macroeconomic and welfare measures of policy effects with the order of magnitude comparable to the reform itself.

    Joanna
    Tyrowicz
    Krzysztof
    Makarski
    Jan
    Hagemejer
    Karolina
    Goraus
    Marcin
    Bielecki

W toku | Work in progress

  • Evaluating welfare and economic effects of raised fertility ()

    In the context of the second demographic transition, many countries consider rising fertility through pro-family polices as a potentially viable solution to the fiscal pressure stemming from longevity. However, an increased number of births implies private and immediate costs, whereas the gains are not likely to surface until later and appear via internalizing the public benefits of younger and larger population. Hence, quantification of the net effects remains a challenge. We propose using an overlapping generations model with a rich family structure to quantify the effects of increased birth rates. We analyze the overall macroeconomic and welfare effects as well as the distribution of these effects across cohorts and study the sensitivity of the final effects to the assumed target value and path of increased fertility. We find that fiscal effects are positive but, even in the case of relatively large fertility increase, they are small. The sign and the size of both welfare and fiscal effects depend substantially on the patterns of increased fertility: if increased fertility occurs via lower childlessness, the fiscal effects are smaller and welfare effects are more likely to be negative than in the case of the intensive margin adjustments.

    Krzysztof
    Makarski
    Magda
    Malec
  • Political (In)Stability of Social Security Reform ()

    We analyze the political stability social security reforms which introduce a funded pillar (a.k.a. privatizations). We consider an economy populated by overlapping generations and intra-cohort heterogeneity, which introduces a funded pillar. This reform is efficient in Kaldor-Hicks sense and has political support. Subsequently, agents vote on abolishing the funded system, capturing the accumulated pension wealth, and replacing it with the pay-as-you-go scheme, i.e. “unprivatizing” the pension system. We show that even if such reform reduces welfare in the long run, the distribution of benefits across cohorts along the transition path implies that “unprivatizing” social security is always politically favored. We conclude that property rights definition over retirement savings may be of crucial importance for determining the stability of retirement systems with a funded pillar. 


    This paper was originally started as a part of MODELLING project, but with the time, it evolved into a heterogeneous agents framework with ex ante heterogeneity in terms of endowments and preferences.

    Joanna
    Tyrowicz
    Krzysztof
    Makarski
    Oliwia
    Komada
  • Welfare effects of fiscal policy in reforming the pension system ()

    Pension system reforms imply substantial redistribution between cohorts and within cohorts. They also implicitly affect the scope of risk sharing in societies. Linking pensions to individual incomes increases efficiency but reduces the insurance motive implicit in Beveridgean systems. The existing view in the literature argues that the insurance motive dominates the efficiency gains when evaluating the welfare effects. We show that this result is not universal: there exist ways to increase efficiency or compensate the loss of insurance, assuring welfare gains from pension system reform even in economies with uninsurable idiosyncratic income shocks. The fiscal closure, which necessarily accompanies the changes in the pension system, may boost efficiency and/or make up for lower insurance in the pension system. Indeed, fiscal closures inherently interact with the effects of pension system reform, counteracting or reinforcing the original effects. By analyzing a variety of fiscal closures, we reconcile our result with the earlier literature. We also study the political economy context and show that political support is feasible depending on the fiscal closure.

    Oliwia
    Komada
    Krzysztof
    Makarski
    Joanna
    Tyrowicz
  • Inequality in an OLG economy with intra-cohort heterogeneity and an obligatory pension system ()

    While the inequalities of endowments are widely recognized as areas of policy intervention, the dispersion in preferences may also imply inequalities of outcomes. In this paper, we analyze the inequalities in an OLG model with obligatory pension systems. We model both policy relevant pension systems (a defined benefit system — DB — and a transition from a DB to a defined contribution system, DC). We introduce within cohort heterogeneity of endowments (individual productivities) and heterogeneity of preferences (preference for leisure and time preference). We introduce two policy instruments, which are widely used: a contribution cap and a minimum pension. In theory these instruments affect both the incentives to work and the incentives to save for the retirement with different strength and via different channels, but the actual effect attributable to these policy instruments cannot be judged in an environment with a single representative agent. We show four main results. First, longevity increases aggregate consumption inequalities substantially in both pension systems, whereas the effect of a pension system reform works to reinforce the consumption inequalities and reduce the wealth inequalities. Second, the contribution cap has negligible effect on inequalities, but the role for minimum pension benefit guarantee is more pronounced. Third, the reduction in inequalities due to minimum pension benefit guarantee is achieved with virtually no effect on capital accumulation. Finally, the minimum pension benefit guarantee addresses mostly the inequalities which stem from differentiated endowments and not those that stem from differentiated preferences.

    Joanna
    Tyrowicz
    Krzysztof
    Makarski
    Marcin
    Bielecki


Mikroekonomia I

Ogłoszenia:

Pojawiły się wyniki egzaminu w II terminie oraz oceny końcowe. Oglądanie egzaminów: 28 lutego, środa, godz. 12.45, Jajko.
Poprawkowe zaliczenie ćwiczeń. Termin nadsyłania rozwiązań upływa 11 lutego 2018.

Wykłady:

[Wykład 1] [Wykład 2] [Wykład 3] [Wykład 4] [Wykład 5] [Wykład 6] [Wykład 7] [Wykład 8] [Wykład 9] [Wykład 10] [Wykład 11] [Wykład 12] [Wykład 13] [Wykład 14] [Wykład 15][Wykład 16][Wykład 17][Wykład 18] [Przykładowe kolokwium II]

Ćwiczenia:

[Ćwiczenia 1] [Ćwiczenia 2] [Ćwiczenia 3] [Ćwiczenia 4] [Ćwiczenia 5] [Ćwiczenia 6] [Ćwiczenia 7] [Ćwiczenia 8] [Ćwiczenia 9] [Ćwiczenia 10] [Dodatkowe ćwiczenia 10] [Ćwiczenia 11] [Ćwiczenia 12]

Rozwiązania zadań w grupie:

[Ćwiczenia 7] [Ćwiczenia 8] [Ćwiczenia 9] [Ćwiczenia 10] [Ćwiczenia 11] [Ćwiczenia 12]


Mikroekonomia II

Sylabus

Wyniki i punkty: wszystkie grupy

Wykłady:

[Wykład 1] [Wykład 2] [Wykład 3] [Wykład 4]

Ćwiczenia:

[Narzędzia matematyczne] [Ćwiczenia 1-2]

[Ćwiczenia 1, zadanie w grupach] [Ćwiczenia 1, Zadania Dodatkowe][Ćwiczenia 1, Zadania Dodatkowe ODP]

[Ćwiczenia 2, zadanie w grupach] [Ćwiczenia 2, Zadania Dodatkowe]


Skrypt do Zaawansowanej Makroekonomii

Rozdział 1. Model Solowa

Rozdział 2. Model Ramseya

Rozdział 3. Pojęcie równowagi

Rozdział 4. Modele z pieniądzem

Rozdział 5. Model realnego cyklu koniunkturalnego (RBC)

Rozdział 6. Model NK

Rozdział 7. Optymalna polityka pieniężna

Rozdział 8. Model bezrobocia

Rozdział 9. Wstęp do teorii o frykcjach finansowych

Rozdział 10. Model z ograniczeniem finansowym

Rozdział 11. Model z akceleratorem finansowym


Advanced Macroeconomics

Annoucements:

Lecture notes:

Homeworks (correction 20.11.2017) :

[HW #2][HW #3] [Exam preparation]


Advanced Macroeconomics II
Annoucements:

Lecture notes:

[1. Definitions] [2. Contract theory] [3. Unemployement] [4. Financial frictions] [5. Collateral constraints] [6. Taxes]

Homeworks:

[HM #2] || [HM #4]

 

  • Aplikacja szacująca skutki reformy emerytalnej z 1999 oraz późniejszych zmian w systemie emerytalnym (2011 i 2013). Możesz samodzielnie dowolnie modyfikować założenia demograficzne i makroekonomiczne.

Systemy emerytalne

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  • Udostępniamy aplikację pozwalającą na samodzielne zreplikowanie (i udoskonalenie) badań GRAPE.

  • Spadną emerytury i dobrobyt. Ograniczenie OFE pozwoli na ograniczenie długu publicznego teraz, obciążając jednocześnie przyszłe pokolenia.